Chalk Dust

Every Saturday, FantasyFling looks at some of the current chalk of the main slate before all the dust settles on Sunday morning before lock. He'll be providing insight as to what chalk might be good chalk, what might be fragile, and where to pivot.

We know that it's very rarely a winning strategy to play an entirely contrarian lineup and completely fade chalk. Chalk is typically chalk because those are some of the best plays, so the field is gravitating towards them. Most GPP-winning lineups will have a combination of chalk and contrarian pivots.

If you've been playing DFS for a while, you've seen chalk fail time and time again for various reasons. One of the questions to ask yourself is (and thus avoid some chalk landmines) how can this chalk fail? For example, a WR1 going against a top-tier corner. Or a running back behind what is suddenly a shaky offensive line because they're down multiple starters, facing a strong defensive front, and the field seems to be sleeping on it.

There are a myriad of factors as to why and how chalk fails, so each week I'll do my best to identify some spots where maybe chalk is fragile (either based on the matchup, or on what historical data has told us), and also look for some spots where we can pivot and find some great plays that the field should probably be higher on.

CMC is the chalk of the slate

Denver gave up 37.1 FPTS to Kenneth Walker in Week 1, 14.2 FPTS to Tuten in Week 2, and 26.9 combined FPTS to a Kyren/Corum combo in Week 3. Given how banged up the 49ers receiving room is, I expect them to feature CMC against a team allowing over 26 FPPG to opposing running backs. CMC also has the top RB projection on the slate despite being $500 cheaper than Walker, who has the second-highest projection. At 30% projected ownership, he's a lock for your cash lineups. Similar to last week with Gibbs, I imagine when we flip the cards over on Sunday morning after lock, CMC will be 70% owned in cash games (50/50s, double ups, etc.).

He also has the 5th-highest probability of hitting 4x his salary, according to Spreadsheets' Sims. That makes him a strong play in all formats. I imagine he'll see 20+ opportunities with 5-8 targets included.

Any time you eat chalk in tournaments that is projecting to be played by almost a third of the field, you'll need to look for pivots elsewhere. I'll cover those later in the article, as I do every week.

After CMC, the chalk feels a lot more fragile at the RB position.

Chase Brown projects for 25% projected ownership, is playing in the game with the highest projected total of the week, has the 4th-best fantasy point projection at RB, is coming up in optimals, and looks great in the sims. However, he's averaged 13 FPPG this season, which is barely over 2x his salary, and Jacksonville has been good against the run. This is chalk I'm comfortable eating in cash, but I do deem it fragile given the tougher matchup and the high ownership. The biggest case he has going for him is the game total, the receiving work, and the fact that his price has dropped a full $1K since Week 1. There's a wide range of outcomes here, so I will be shifting exposure to other plays in the $5,500-6K range in GPPs.

Aaron Jones projects almost identically across the board to Chase Brown, with 25% ownership, $100 less in salary, and a 17-point fantasy projection. The Vikings wanted a committee approach this year, but with Mason on IR, they've been willing to ride Aaron Jones, with back-to-back games of 23 opportunities. The bull case for Jones is that the Vikings are 10.5-point favorites at home, and without Justin Jefferson, it would make sense to ride the run game against a bad Miami squad. The bear case is that Jones has averaged 3.37 YPC in 2 of his 3 games this year, and rostering a 25% owned player who's a frequent visitor to the blue tent is a big gamble.

Furthermore, according to Spreadsheets' Sims, he's way less likely than Chase Brown to hit 4x his salary (only about 4% of the time). Looking back at his game logs, I tend to agree. I'm more interested in playing him in cash and small-field tournaments than I am in large-field tournaments, where I'll need the 4x to win.

The Parker Washington hype train is full steam ahead

Washington projects as the wide receiver with the most ownership, at 21%. He could go nuclear here in a game environment that projects as back and forth, with the highest game total on the slate at 51.5 points. He has also shown in back-to-back matchups that he still has a decent floor, mainly because he's a really good player who plays a lot of snaps in the slot, where he can avoid difficult corner matchups. At this ownership, I'm definitely team play-the-best-plays in cash, and I'm not so much looking to fade this in tournaments as I am getting exposure to other plays in this game, like Jakobi Meyers.

Jordan Addison and Garrett Wilson are tied for the second-most wide receiver ownership on the slate. Addison got 9 targets last week when Jefferson left the game almost immediately with an ankle injury. Jefferson is out this week, so Addison is a screaming value at only $5,300 against a lousy Dolphins team. This chalk seems likely to return 2-3x value and unlikely to burn you at this salary. He's a great cash play and has one of the 10 best probabilities on the slate to hit 4x his salary.

Garrett Wilson smashed last week with 13 targets, a bump of 6 targets from his Week 1 and 2 average of 6, with Adonai and Taylor out of the lineup. It's another soft matchup this week against the bad news Bears secondary. Given the volume, projection, and matchup, this is chalk that I want to be eating on Sunday.

Chalk that is fragile

Puka Nacua has definitely been a rollercoaster since late in the 2025 season, with off-the-field stuff and now an injury that some doctors think may be a sports hernia that will eventually lead to surgery. We know that he's underpriced at $7,500 if he plays his normal snaps, but there are reports that he'll be on a snap count. I know, we've seen these reports before, and the player often ended up being a full go and smashing at low ownership. The difference here is that he's projected as the 4th-highest owned wide receiver at almost 17% ownership and is $7,500, so he needs about 30 FPTS to have the 4x tournament-winning upside we're looking for. I'm not touching him in cash games, and he'll be fragile chalk unless we get a report on Sunday morning that he's a full go.

Where to shift ownership

• James Cook at 9% projected ownership. This is a spot where Cook usually romps, and New England is down a DT, so I love that for Cook. Ty Johnson got involved last week, and that may keep people off of Cook, but we've seen it before where the backup RB randomly has a big week and then the next week it's all Cook. The Bills have a 28.25 implied team total, and he's almost a direct one-to-one pivot off of chalk CMC.
• Bhayshul Tuten at 4% projected ownership. There are so many chalk pieces in this game, and then there's Tuten, who's looked really good (averaging 4.75 YPC) and is getting overlooked by the field. Tuten is direct leverage specifically off Lawrence and Washington.
• Nico Collins at 9% projected ownership. He's back. One of the best wide receivers in the league at under 10% projected ownership, with a 25.75 implied team total, and getting almost half the ownership of Puka against a Dallas defense that is a pass funnel. Furthermore, the Texans have been poor running the ball, so they should lean more on the pass game with Nico back.
• Davante Adams at 4% projected ownership. So... what if Puka is on a limited snap count or reinjures himself? Adams has been smashing and now is projected for 4% ownership with the news that Puka is back. I want to be at least 2x the field, with the upside given the Puka injury.

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Make sure to follow @PredFantasy on X so you never miss an article. FantasyFling will be dropping The Chalk Outline on Sunday morning, where he writes a full report of the chalk at every position after the dust settles - so you know which chalk to eat, which chalk to fade, and where we predict the field has got it wrong.