Chalk Dust

Every Saturday, FantasyFling looks at some of the current chalk of the main slate before all the dust settles on Sunday morning before lock. He'll be providing insight as to what chalk might be good chalk, what might be fragile, and where to pivot.

We know that it's very rarely a winning strategy to play an entirely contrarian lineup and completely fade chalk. Chalk is typically chalk because those are some of the best plays, so the field is gravitating towards them. Most GPP-winning lineups will have a combination of chalk and contrarian pivots.

If you've been playing DFS for a while, you've seen chalk fail time and time again for various reasons. One of the questions to ask yourself is (and thus avoid some chalk landmines) how can this chalk fail? For example, a WR1 going against a top-tier corner. Or a running back behind what is suddenly a shaky offensive line because they're down multiple starters, facing a strong defensive front, and the field seems to be sleeping on it.

There are a myriad of factors as to why and how chalk fails, so each week FantasyFling will do his best to identify some spots where maybe chalk is fragile (either based on the matchup, or on what historical data has told us), and also look for some spots where we can pivot and find some great plays that the field should probably be higher on.

Gibbs is the chalk of the slate (again)

It's becoming a weekly theme: if Jahmyr Gibbs is on the main slate, we're going to play him. He's the chalk pretty much every single week, because he's the guy we thought he would be when we drafted him first overall all summer long.

This week is an even better spot for Gibbs. The Lions have a 30-point implied team total in a game with a 54.5-point total, and Gibbs has far and away the highest projection on the slate at 26.8 points. That's a full 5-6 points higher than the next-highest non-quarterback, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Gibbs projects for 36% ownership as of Saturday, and this is chalk I am 100% comfortable eating in cash and in small-field tournaments.

When we look at the landscape of the slate, it's really not surprising that Gibbs is projected for so much ownership, even at $9,800. It's a smaller slate at 11 games, and some of the best offenses, like Buffalo, aren't on it. Most of the time, a player needs 3.5-4x his salary to be in the winning lineup, and that's a big ask for a $9,800 player who needs about 39 points to hit 4x. But I think points are going to be at a premium on this slate, and 30 points from Gibbs would probably do it, especially with the value we could be looking at from guys like Mike Washington Jr., who could start at $4,200. Gibbs by himself at $9,800 is a lot, but pair those two together and it's much more palatable to fit into your lineups.

So Gibbs is far and away the best chalk of the slate, and the cash chalk of the slate for sure. There's always merit to fading a player above $8K at 36% ownership in tournaments, but in cash and small fields, he's going to be in pretty much every one of my lineups.

The running back chalk behind him

The next-highest projected ownership at running back is D'Andre Swift at 31%. We saw him get benched last week after a fumble, with Kyle Monangai coming in to replace him, but Monangai is out this week. Swift should have the entire backfield to himself in a plus matchup against a Green Bay team that has allowed almost 30 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, with the Bears carrying a 24-point implied team total. Swift has been good, and this is chalk I am definitely looking to eat at his $6,200 price tag.

After Swift, we have Mike Washington Jr. projected for 26% ownership. We still don't know for sure whether Ashton Jeanty is going to play. If he doesn't, this is chalk I am 100% eating. At $4,200, Washington really doesn't have to do much to be in the winning lineup. 12 points might be enough. If he scores 15, 16, or 20 points, he's DEFINITELY in the winning lineup.

Any time we get extreme value like this, we've seen in the past that you want to eat that good chalk and get different in your lineup in other ways. It opens up lineup constructions you wouldn't have thought were possible, like putting Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor in the same lineup and still squeezing in a high-priced wide receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown or JSN, because you got so much production out of a $4,200 running back.

If Washington is the starter because Jeanty is out, I think it's pretty clear: builds with Gibbs, Swift, and Washington are the chalk of the slate, and that's how you should construct your cash lineups.

Michael Wilson is the wide receiver chalk

At wide receiver, the Detroit-Arizona game is where most of the construction is going to happen this week. Its 54.5-point total is a clear 8 points higher than the next-highest games on the slate (46.5 and 46), so naturally we're going to get a lot of chalk here.

Michael Wilson is now projected for the highest ownership at wide receiver, and it makes so much sense. News came down today that Marvin Harrison Jr. will be inactive, with several credible sources reporting that Arizona is working on a trade it will announce after Sunday's game, so they don't want to risk an injury. This was already a good spot for Wilson and the Arizona passing offense: Detroit gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, including 46.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Add a few more targets on top of a workload that has already been consistent (13 targets last week, 17 the week before), and the elevated ownership is easy to understand. I'd expect similar volume in a game where Arizona will probably be trailing and will need to throw against a Detroit secondary that has been very poor.

So yes, put Wilson into your cash lineups at $6,200. It just makes too much sense.

That said, it's always feasible to fade a chalk wide receiver at this kind of ownership if you can find paths to him failing. One concern I have is the Arizona offensive line. Brandon Thorn at ETR has the Detroit defensive line as a mismatch against the Cardinals' offensive line, and if they can't block efficiently for Jacoby Brissett, that creates problems for the whole offense. With more than a quarter of the field playing a $6,200 receiver, that's one way this chalk fails. He could get the volume, 10 targets even, but if he catches 4 for 80-90 yards, that's fine but it's not winning you a tournament. He needs at least 18 points, and realistically over 20, to give you a shot at his $6,200 price tag. A backup could also come in and get the touchdown variance, or it could just be the Trey McBride show, who is getting a lot of ownership as well.

The other wide receiver chalk from that game is Amon-Ra St. Brown, at almost identical ownership to Wilson. It's a spot that makes a lot of sense, and we've seen Amon-Ra have some really big games. But he's also had back-to-back games where he hasn't come close to tournament-winning value, and he's priced really high at $7,900, the third-highest wide receiver salary on the slate. The concern is that Gibbs steals all the touchdowns. We saw it last week: oftentimes when Gibbs has the kind of ceiling you need from him, that's not good for Amon-Ra at this salary.

Amon-Ra is a great cash play and a great play overall, but we've seen wide receivers in spots like this fail in tournaments time and time again. I'll have a significant amount of Amon-Ra, but there will be lineups where I leverage his ownership and shift exposure to Jameson Williams, who has big-play upside at only 8% projected ownership, and Sam LaPorta, who is projected for under 15%.

Chalk that is fragile

The chalk that concerns me most this week is Jacoby Brissett, the top-owned quarterback on the slate. When we looked at Milly Maker winners over the past five years, one of the things that hit at an incredibly low rate was stacks from home underdogs, and that's exactly what Arizona is this week: 5.5-point underdogs at home. Typically, you were much better off fading that. The other thing we looked at was chalk stacks, and more often than not, you were better off fading those too.

So what we have is an Arizona team that is the chalk stack of the slate, Brissett (19% ownership) to Wilson (26% ownership) and Trey McBride (projected for 31% ownership), as home underdogs. The way I think this fails is the offensive line not being able to stop Detroit's pass rush. We know Detroit's secondary is bad, but if the pass rush gets there right away, I could see this line not protecting Brissett well enough to produce the fantasy scores needed to win the tournament.

Given the projection and ownership, it's all good for cash. However, a lot of historical data (and matchups on the field) are showing us that this chalk could fail.

Brissett is averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game. Rounded, he has a 16-point game, a 7-point game, a 25, and a 13. So two out of four weeks, that wouldn't have been good enough for a cash-worthy score, let alone a tournament-winning one. There are other quarterbacks on this slate in better spots to score points, including in this same game.

Jared Goff is getting a significant amount of ownership as well, but I'd rather play that side of the game, because there are more ways to pivot with Goff. With Brissett, you're basically stacking him with Wilson or McBride, and Bourne and whoever else they trot out there are ways to get different but much more of an unknown than the Goff stacking pieces; they haven't played significant roles yet. With Goff, you can get different by stacking him with Jameson Williams or LaPorta, both of whom are going to be significantly lower owned than Wilson and McBride.

Where to shift ownership

• Jameson Williams at 8% projected ownership. Instead of playing a 26%-owned Amon-Ra St. Brown, we can go right back to Williams. He's a frustrating player to roster because he is going to fail a lot, but he's only $5,900 and he has big-play potential. The drops have been there, but last week he scored almost 20 fantasy points, which you can survive from a $5,900 player. You can't survive it from a $7,900 player. He has 20-30 point upside; we haven't seen it yet, but this could be the spot.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 16% projected ownership, significantly less than Amon-Ra. It's a high game total, and he's the best wide receiver in the league. Why wouldn't we want to pivot a little to a guy with such a high ceiling at less ownership?
• Nico Collins at 11% projected ownership against the Titans. Nico is an absolute stud, a perfect one-to-one pivot off of Amon-Ra, in a spot where he could absolutely smash.
• Christian Watson at 7% projected ownership against Chicago. We've seen Watson's upside time and time again, and he's only $6,400. He's an excellent pivot specifically off of Michael Wilson.
• Jaylen Waddle at 7% projected ownership, $100 cheaper than Wilson. The Chargers are extremely banged up, and so is the Broncos' secondary, so this game has sneaky shootout potential. With Sean Payton taking back play calling, I can guarantee the play calling is going to center around getting Waddle the ball. Denver spent a first- and a third-round pick to acquire him. Like Watson, he's a strong one-to-one pivot off of a heavily owned Michael Wilson.

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Make sure to follow @PredFantasy on X so you never miss an article. FantasyFling will be dropping The Chalk Outline on Sunday morning, where he writes a full report of the chalk at every position after the dust settles - so you know which chalk to eat, which chalk to fade, and where we predict the field has got it wrong.