Chalk Dust

Every Saturday, FantasyFling looks at some of the current chalk of the main slate before all the dust settles on Sunday morning before lock. He'll be providing insight as to what chalk might be good chalk, what might be fragile, and where to pivot.

We know that it's very rarely a winning strategy to play an entirely contrarian lineup and completely fade chalk. Chalk is typically chalk because those are some of the best plays, so the field is gravitating towards them. Most GPP-winning lineups will have a combination of chalk and contrarian pivots.

If you've been playing DFS for a while, you've seen chalk fail time and time again for various reasons. One of the questions to ask yourself is (and thus avoid some chalk landmines) how can this chalk fail? For example, a WR1 going against a top-tier corner. Or a running back behind what is suddenly a shaky offensive line because they're down multiple starters, facing a strong defensive front, and the field seems to be sleeping on it.

There are a myriad of factors as to why and how chalk fails, so each week FantasyFling will do his best to identify some spots where maybe chalk is fragile (either based on the matchup, or on what historical data has told us) and also look for some spots where we can pivot and find some great plays that the field should probably be higher on.

Kyren Williams is the top Running Back chalk

At running back, Kyren Williams is the chalk of the slate at 28.1% projected ownership. When we look at his usage so far this year, it's really no surprise that he's the chalk of the slate, especially in this matchup. He's averaged nine targets over his last three games to go with 15.6 rushing attempts per game, for an average of 24 opportunities per game. This is elite usage.

This is an absolute smash spot for Kyren, who's the chalk of the slate but also one of the top fantasy points per dollar plays on the entire slate. With the Rams carrying a 32-point implied team total, it's really no surprise that he's the chalk of the slate, and it's definitely chalk that I will be eating.

The running back chalk behind him

The running back chalk behind him also looks pretty solid on this slate. We have Bijan Robinson at 25.2% projected ownership. Bijan has the top projection at running back on the slate, in a game whose total has risen from 51.5 to 52.5 with Caleb Williams returning. Atlanta has a 25.5-point implied team total, and Vegas definitely thinks this game could shoot out. So, this is a pretty good game environment for Bijan. Chicago is a decent team against the run, but they're not a juggernaut by any means, and Bijan does so much as a receiving back that I think his projection is pretty safe. He's getting well over 20 opportunities per game, and in some games we're seeing him get over 25, so this is chalk that certainly makes sense.

After Bijan, we have Rhamondre Stevenson at 23.1% projected ownership. I actually love this spot for Rhamondre if TreVeyon Henderson misses this week, as the Jets allow 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. With a high team total (25.5) and the backfield to himself, I think this is a great spot for Rhamondre Stevenson. That said, should TreVeyon Henderson play in this game, I would deem this chalk fragile, and it definitely could fail.

Puka Nacua is mega chalk

Looking over at wide receiver, Puka Nacua is the clear chalk of the slate. In fact, he's mega chalk, projected for almost 40% ownership. He got 12 targets in Week 4 and 24 targets in Week 5, so he's all the way back. He has the highest projection on the slate of any running back or wide receiver; the only player with a higher projection than Puka is Josh Allen. Puka is in a spot against an Arizona team that is allowing 38.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. With this projection and a 32-point implied team total, I think this is fantastic chalk.

There's always merit to fading a 40%-owned wide receiver, but Puka has been one of those wide receivers who continues to produce even as mega chalk. I wouldn't so much be looking to fade him as maybe being a little under the field and shifting some exposure to Davante Adams, who's only projected for 10% ownership. He's the guy I definitely want to be over the field on, at a significant discount in price and way less ownership than Puka. TD variance goes his way and he could smash and be direct leverage off of the Puka chalk.

Drake London in the Chicago game

After Puka, we have Drake London projected for 28% ownership in that Chicago/Atlanta game. We have seen Drake London thrive when Michael Penix has been the quarterback; his game matches up very well with what Penix does. Given the game environment, this is ownership that I certainly get. I think he has as high a ceiling as any wide receiver priced in the 7K range, especially on this slate in this game environment.

This is good chalk to eat in cash for sure, but it's going to be difficult to fit Puka in your lineup, pay up twice at running back, and get Drake London in your lineup. So I'm not necessarily getting to Drake London in cash, but I do think he's a solid play.

Chalk that is fragile

Speaking of fragile chalk, right behind Rhamondre Stevenson, the next highest-owned projection at running back is Braelon Allen as of Saturday. Braelon Allen has looked good in Breece's absence, but he's on a team that's projected to lose and be in a negative game script. The Jets have only an 18-point implied team total and are 7.5-point underdogs. They're also going against a New England team that is good against the run, allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. So the Braelon Allen chalk is definitely chalk that I would deem fragile. I'll be fading that in tournaments.

Xavier Worthy: what could possibly go wrong?

Interestingly enough, after Drake London, we have Xavier Worthy projected for the most ownership at wide receiver, at 23%. What could possibly go wrong here?

The bull case for Xavier Worthy is that Tyquan Thornton is on IR, Rashee Rice is out, and the Chiefs have a 24.5-point implied team total against a Chargers team that has been terrible. Worthy is only $4,600 and should see 6-7 targets in this game, maybe more.

However, the type of wide receiver he is can be very boom or bust. He's a speedy deep threat who has not done super well against press coverage, so he's a guy I can definitely see failing at 23% ownership. Typically, when we see a wide receiver of his caliber who really isn't a number one wide receiver being thrust into a number one role, much like Tre' Harris last week, they have a high failure rate. I'll be putting him into my cash lineup, most likely, and fading this ownership in large field tournaments.

Where to shift ownership

• Davante Adams at 10% projected ownership. The way to be slightly under the field on Puka: a significant discount in price and way less ownership in the same great game environment.
• Germie Bernard at $4,000 and 11% projected ownership. He's projected just two fantasy points less than Xavier Worthy, at significantly less ownership, around the same price.
• Keenan Allen at $4,300 and about 9% projected ownership. He's in a high team total and has back-to-back games of nine targets. Good pivot off of Worthy.
• Cyrus Allen at $3,500 and under 1% projected ownership. He was a camp star and should see an elevated role with Thornton and Rice out. He's more of a large-field tournament dart off of Worthy.
• Tyler Allgeier at $4,800 and 6% projected ownership. Should TreVeyon Henderson play and Rhamondre Stevenson's ownership stay high, Allgeier is who I'd shift that exposure to. He's now going to be the workhorse for Arizona, and we've seen him catch passes even with Love in the mix. That $1,200 discount from Stevenson can go toward paying up at defense, tight end, or wide receiver.
• James Cook at $7,400 and 11% projected ownership. James Cook has smashed time and time again in these spots with high implied team totals. Allen is projected for 14.5% ownership after an incredible start to the season where they've been in shootouts time and time again. When the games are less competitive and the team total is high, Cook often eats and is a pretty good pivot off of London in the flex.
• Tony Pollard at $5,400. Tyjae Spears being out elevates Pollard, and the field is not on him at all because Tennessee has been a poor team with a low team total. But we've seen Pollard smash out of nowhere in the past when no one was expecting it with a projected negative game script. He's a guy I'd shift some Stevenson exposure to, as well as Braelon Allen exposure. I'm out on Allen at $5,700 at this ownership in this matchup, and Pollard is a pretty close one-to-one pivot off of him.

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Make sure to follow @PredFantasy on X so you never miss an article. FantasyFling will be dropping The Chalk Outline on Sunday morning, where he writes a full report of the chalk at every position after the dust settles - so you know which chalk to eat, which chalk to fade, and where we predict the field has got it wrong.