Chalk Dust: Week 7

Every Saturday, FantasyFling looks at some of the current chalk of the main slate before all the dust settles on Sunday morning before lock. He'll be providing insight as to what chalk might be good chalk, what might be fragile, and where to pivot.

We know that it's very rarely a winning strategy to play an entirely contrarian lineup and completely fade chalk. Chalk is typically chalk because those are some of the best plays, so the field is gravitating towards them. Most GPP-winning lineups will have a combination of chalk and contrarian pivots.

If you've been playing DFS for a while, you've seen chalk fail time and time again for various reasons. One of the questions to ask yourself is (and thus avoid some chalk landmines) how can this chalk fail? For example, a WR1 going against a top-tier corner. Or a running back behind what is suddenly a shaky offensive line because they're down multiple starters, facing a strong defensive front, and the field seems to be sleeping on it.

There are a myriad of factors as to why and how chalk fails, so each week FantasyFling will do his best to identify some spots where maybe chalk is fragile (either based on the matchup, or on what historical data has told us) and also look for some spots where we can pivot and find some great plays that the field should probably be higher on.

Jordan Love is the quarterback chalk

Jordan Love is the clear chalk of the slate at quarterback with a 19% ownership projection. He's been coming up in optimals all week, and he looks great in the sims. On paper, this matchup makes sense. Green Bay has been chucking the ball up and down the field with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and that plays right into what Detroit has been bad at this year: defending the pass. Detroit's secondary is allowing 42 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and 32 to opposing tight ends, and the Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks at 30.

So, on paper, Jordan Love is a smash. I mentioned him in my first look video early in the week. This game has the highest total on the slate at 53.5, and Green Bay has a 25.25-point implied team total. He's definitely the cash quarterback this week. There's no question about that.

Is this fragile chalk? On the surface, I would say no. However, as the week has gone on and I've dug into it a little deeper, there are a few concerning factors where I could see this chalk failing to deliver tournament-winning upside.

The biggest one for me is that the Detroit Lions have a very good pass rush. Their defense has been terrible, but the pass rush has not. Brandon Thorn from ETR ranked this as one of the mismatches of the slate: the Lions have the fifth-best defensive line, led by Aidan Hutchinson, and the Packers have one of the worst offensive lines at 28th overall. I'm a bit concerned they may struggle to protect Jordan Love in this game.

Green Bay is also getting Josh Jacobs back, so they may lean more into the run. Jordan Love has not really had great games against Detroit in the past, and the Lions are getting their Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch back this week, which could boost that secondary. I'm not saying Jordan Love is going to have a bad game. But almost 20% of the field is going to play him, and they're also going to play his top stacking partner, which we'll get to in a bit. That gives me some pause.

Christian McCaffrey is the top running back chalk

At running back, Christian McCaffrey is getting the most ownership on the slate at almost 32%. At $7,600, he's the highest fantasy-points-per-dollar play on the slate, at over three points per dollar.

The reason he's projecting so well is that San Francisco is extremely banged up at wide receiver. In the past, McCaffrey has gotten 10-plus targets in games, so this is a game where we could see him used as a wide receiver in addition to his running work. That brings such a high floor. This is a spot that makes a ton of sense against Atlanta, with the 49ers carrying a 26-point implied team total. He should get a ton of volume.

Bijan Robinson is scary in cash

After McCaffrey is Bijan Robinson, getting the most ownership at Running Back as of Saturday. For me, this is kind of a scary cash play. Last week, even though he was running the ball really effectively, Atlanta got down a couple of touchdowns in the second quarter, went pass-happy, AND completely went away from him. He got nine carries and only two targets. That is shaky volume for a running back of this caliber getting this much ownership.

However, I think they saw last week what happens when you go away from Bijan Robinson. The offense really needs to run through him, and he should never really be game-scripted out of a game, because he's such a great receiver with the ball in his hands. This is scary chalk to fade, but also typically the kind of chalk you want to avoid in cash - it all depends on how much they'll force the game to run through him or not. Atlanta will be wise to force him carries and targets even if they're in a negative game script, because he's easily one of the most explosive players in the league.

Jahmyr Gibbs is a tournament play for me

Jahmyr Gibbs is next, also getting a lot of ownership. He's averaging 32.1 fantasy points per game, clear of everyone else at running back and wide receiver, and he's now priced accordingly at $9,800. It's actually a good matchup for him, but he's not coming up in optimals or in the sims this week, and I think that's really just the price.

I'm probably not going there in cash, because I don't think there's the value to fit both Gibbs and McCaffrey into your lineup. He's more of a tournament play for me. If you do play him in tournaments, you'll have to find great value at other spots, because at almost $10K it's difficult for him to provide tournament-winning value and be paired with the other players on the slate that project well relative to their salary. This is why he's not coming up in optimals.

Matthew Golden is the wide receiver chalk

This goes back to the Jordan Love conversation. Matthew Golden is the chalk of the slate at wide receiver, projected for about 28% ownership. He's $6,000, so he's $1,000 cheaper than Christian Watson, the other stud wide receiver in that Green Bay offense. If you just run your optimizer, you're going to get a lot of Matthew Golden, whether you stack him with Jordan Love or not. He looks great in the sims, he's great from a fantasy-points-per-dollar perspective, the volume has been really good at this price, and the game environment is great. He's definitely making it into my cash lineup this week.

In tournaments, there is always merit to fading a wide receiver who's going to get close to 30% ownership, and that's exactly what we have with Matthew Golden. The scenario where he fails is simply positive touchdown variance going to a guy like Christian Watson, who's getting half the ownership at 13%. It's also a really good spot for Tucker Kraft, who's getting 15% ownership. Maybe Kraft has the big game. Maybe, with Josh Jacobs back, they throw less at the goal line and give the ball to Jacobs, and Golden doesn't get the touchdown he needs to end up in the winning lineup.

There are a lot of ways he could fail, and looking at those is one of the purposes of Chalk Dust. He's a great play, no doubt, and I'll have a lot of him on the slate. But I'll be looking to leverage him failing by building in other ways, like with Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is due

After Golden, Amon-Ra St. Brown is getting the most ownership at about 19%. I think he's due for some positive regression. He hasn't had a big game since Week 2, despite Detroit being in shootouts, but he's had double-digit targets in all but one game this year. His big game probably comes at the expense of Gibbs, who isn't popping in optimals or the sims this week. In a game environment that can be a shootout, with both teams allowing a lot of points per game, I like this chalk. Amon-Ra is in a great spot.

Ted Hurst is fragile chalk

This is where ownership gets tricky. Ted Hurst is also projected for about 18% ownership, and to me this is super fragile chalk. He's just a value play because Emeka Egbuka is out and he's priced near the minimum at wide receiver, $3,000. We see these guys fail time and time again.

He's viable for your cash lineup, but he's had weeks where he's put up a donut and weeks where he's gotten three targets. He could score four points, give you 1x to 2x, and bring none of the ceiling you needed. In every game this year but one, he's scored fewer than 10 fantasy points. Yes, he should see an elevated role with Egbuka out, but those targets could also go to Chris Godwin. I'm a little scared of this ownership, and Hurst is a guy I'll definitely be limiting my exposure to in tournaments.

Puka Nacua, if he plays

Puka Nacua is projected for almost 18% ownership as well. He was projected for the most ownership at the beginning of the week, but he hurt his calf in practice on Thursday, so he's questionable. If he plays, we'd expect him to be a full go, and he's a smash. Realistically he should get the highest ownership on the slate, because we know he's going to get 12 or more targets.

Double tight end is in play

There are tight ends getting a lot of ownership on this slate. I've said in the past that I very rarely play double tight end in cash, but with the way this week is setting up, a lot of the optimals are coming out with two tight ends.

George Kittle is in an absolutely fantastic spot. If you think of him as a $5,700 wide receiver who's going to get 10-plus targets, it's much easier to talk yourself into double tight end in cash. The 49ers are completely void of wide receivers after losing so many to injuries this year. They will be without Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, De'Zhaun Stribling and Ricky Pearsall. I think Kittle is pretty much a lock for 10-plus targets, and at $5,700 he's a smash. I'd be shocked if he's the guy who kills your cash lineup, and if he does, it's probably because he got hurt too.

After him, Cade Otton is $3,100. Historically, whenever Godwin or Mike Evans have missed a game, Otton has produced some really fine scores. He projects a little better than Hurst at almost identical ownership, and I think he's less likely to crush your cash lineup than Hurst would. I'm happy playing him.

Where to shift ownership

When we look at potentially fading some chalk, I always want to look for good leverage spots. Where are the pivots we can shift exposure to? At wide receiver, there are a significant number of options.

• Ja'Marr Chase at 10% projected ownership. He has absolutely crushed against Baltimore in the past. Some of that came with Tee Higgins out, but there have been games with Higgins in the lineup where Chase smoked the Ravens too, like Week 5 of 2024, when he caught 10 balls for 193 yards and two touchdowns. I worry this game won't be as high scoring as we once thought, with Lamar Jackson out and the total down four to five points since it opened. But Chase can get there by himself, at only 10% ownership.
• Christian Watson at $7,000 and 13% projected ownership. I still think he's the better wide receiver of the two in Green Bay. If he's getting half the ownership of Matthew Golden, I definitely want to leverage that. He's also a big-play wide receiver, so when he smashes, it comes at the expense of Golden, as the Packers are getting off the field after Watson scores a long touchdown.
• Justin Jefferson at about 10% projected ownership against Indianapolis. The Colts have given up a lot of points this year, 27.3 per game to opposing offenses, and they'll be without Sauce Gardner. This could be a spot where Jefferson smashes at less ownership than guys like Amon-Ra, Drake London, Matthew Golden and Puka.
• Tucker Kraft at $4,700 and 15% projected ownership. When it comes to pivoting off Matthew Golden specifically, Kraft is the one that stands out. Detroit is a really good matchup for opposing tight ends, and the way I can see the Golden chalk failing is Kraft having the big game. We haven't seen it from him this year as he's come back from injury, while Golden and Watson have been smashing, but he's still getting seven to eight targets most weeks. He's due for some positive regression in a good spot, and he could be the reason Golden lineups fail. That's why I want him in my lineups, both as a one-off and in stacks of this game.

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Make sure to follow @PredFantasy on X so you never miss an article. FantasyFling will be dropping The Chalk Outline on Sunday morning, where he writes a full report of the chalk at every position after the dust settles - so you know which chalk to eat, which chalk to fade, and where we predict the field has got it wrong.