Chalk Dust: Week 8

Every Saturday, FantasyFling looks at some of the current chalk of the main slate before all the dust settles on Sunday morning before lock. He'll be providing insight as to what chalk might be good chalk, what might be fragile, and where to pivot.

We know that it's very rarely a winning strategy to play an entirely contrarian lineup and completely fade chalk. Chalk is typically chalk because those are some of the best plays, so the field is gravitating towards them. Most GPP-winning lineups will have a combination of chalk and contrarian pivots.

If you've been playing DFS for a while, you've seen chalk fail time and time again for various reasons. One of the questions to ask yourself is (and thus avoid some chalk landmines) how can this chalk fail? For example, a WR1 going against a top-tier corner. Or a running back behind what is suddenly a shaky offensive line because they're down multiple starters, facing a strong defensive front, and the field seems to be sleeping on it.

There are a myriad of factors as to why and how chalk fails, so each week FantasyFling will do his best to identify some spots where maybe chalk is fragile (either based on the matchup, or on what historical data has told us) and also look for some spots where we can pivot and find some great plays that the field should probably be higher on.

Dak Prescott is the quarterback chalk

Dak Prescott is the quarterback chalk of the slate with almost 16% projected ownership. This is really not a surprise given a combination of factors for Dak. Dallas has an elite combination of an offense that scores a lot of points and a defense that gives up a lot of points. They're currently averaging 27 points per game, and they're giving up about 25 points per game. This game total is tied for the highest on the slate at 54.5. The Dallas Cowboys have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.75, and Dak is only $6,300, so he does not have to do much to pay off his salary. He shows up really well in the sims to hit 3x and 4x, actually at the highest rate of any quarterback. So this is a great spot for Dak, as I expect the Cowboys to score early and often.

The other quarterbacks getting significant ownership are Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence, all projected for over 10% ownership. Each quarterback has a high projection and a high implied team total, and each could certainly finish as a top-scoring quarterback on the slate.

The one that really stands out to me here, however, is Josh Allen, because he's also in the highest game total on the slate and Buffalo's defense has been very poor against opposing quarterbacks and opposing wide receivers. So this sets up really well on the other side for Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers and company to push the pace, continue to score, and force Buffalo to respond. Typically, that's when you get the best version of Josh Allen, where he'll score 35-40 fantasy points. His almost $8K price will keep ownership from being too high, and I absolutely love that. Whether or not I get to Josh Allen in cash, he is a quarterback that I want to be heavily over the field on.

Chase Brown is the running back chalk

At running back, surprisingly, Jahmyr Gibbs is on the main slate and not projected for the highest ownership. The reason is that he's $9,500 and he's going against an extremely good Minnesota team that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. In the past, he's had to stay in and block often against Minnesota which doesn't bode well for him catching passes out of the backfield.

Chase Brown is actually the chalk of the slate, and when I look at this matchup, really it comes down to the fact that he projects well because he's the starting running back for the Cincinnati Bengals and they have a 29.5 implied team total. Unfortunately, Chase Brown has just not been very good this year, even in good spots like Miami in Week 5. Tennessee is a decent matchup, but they're not really a huge standout as a team that you want to target. Really, they're about middle of the pack for running back matchups. The one plus I would say here is that Jeffery Simmons was traded earlier this week, so their run defense will probably be worse than we've seen. It's a good spot for Chase Brown, and I definitely think I'm eating this in cash. But based on the way he's been playing this year, this is not chalk that I am going to be jamming into my lineups in tournaments.

After Chase Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson is projected for a lot of ownership, currently about 20%. There are several reasons why this spot stands out to me. He's only $5,600. The Patriots are really banged up at wide receiver, and TreVeyon Henderson is out for this game. So I would expect a Stevenson-heavy game script between carries and receiving targets. I really like him in cash at this ownership, and honestly I think he's a solid play in all formats in this spot, with a high team total against a poor Miami team that is specifically bad against the run, allowing 29.4 fantasy points per game.

Bhayshul Tuten is almost identical to Rhamondre Stevenson in projection, in price and in ownership. He is also in a fantastic matchup against an Indy team that is selling some of their best players and is in tank mode. I think Jacksonville could score a lot of points in this game, and Vegas certainly agrees, as they have a 28.25 implied team total. Tuten has been the most explosive back on the roster, so I really like him as well in all formats.

Jonah Coleman is chalk to eat

One running back that I'm definitely making sure to get into a lot of lineups, even if it's not my cash lineup this week, is Jonah Coleman, and I will say I think he's a great play in cash as well. I was on this play earlier in the week when I did my first look video, because last week against the Arizona Cardinals we saw a bit of a changing of the guard.

What I think makes this opportunity so good with Jonah Coleman is the fact that Denver moved up to get this guy in the draft. They drafted him, I believe, in the third round of the NFL Draft, and Coleman was the guy they hardly played in the preseason because he looked really good in camp, and in the minimal opportunities he got in the preseason he looked really good, so Sean Payton didn't need to see a lot as he believed he was their guy. When he finally played in the first game of the season, he looked solid before getting injured in Week 2. Then he went on IR, and he came back last week and led all Broncos in carries in what was a three-way committee. The point is he was the most effective running the ball between the tackles, and it was obvious that J.K. Dobbins was being phased out, and his media antics this week would certainly suggest that.

RJ Harvey got hurt this week and is missing this game, so I would expect Jonah Coleman to get the bulk of the workload at home. At only $4,300, he projects as the highest fantasy-points-per-dollar play for running backs, so I think this is a smash spot for him as I expect him to get the bulk of the work. He's now getting a pretty good amount of ownership, but he's not mega chalk by any means, so this is chalk that I am definitely looking to eat.

I will say I'm a little surprised at the Jahmyr Gibbs ownership. I'm typically all for playing Jahmyr Gibbs, but not in this spot at $9,500 against this defense. I just really struggle to see him being able to give you that kind of upside, 3x to 4x his salary at $9,500, to win the tournament. Honestly, I really like the $5K to $6K backs this week. I think this sets up as a week that you want to pay up more at wide receiver than at running back.

Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua lead the wide receiver chalk

Speaking of wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase and Zay Flowers are projected for almost identical ownership. I love them both this week, but I specifically love Zay Flowers. The reason is he does not have a Tee Higgins on the opposite side of him who can have those smash games and bury him, like Tee Higgins would to Ja'Marr Chase. He's also in an incredible game environment where I think they're going to need a lot of offense to beat Buffalo, and they're going against the worst secondary this year as far as giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Buffalo Bills are giving up 43 points per game to opposing wide receivers. When Zay Flowers has been on the field with Lamar Jackson this year, it has been absolutely electric. He's actually still averaging about 22 points per game, and most of that has been with Huntley, but we've seen him score 25 points in one half of football with Lamar Jackson. He's a guy that I've prioritized above everyone else.

I do think when we look at overall projection, ceiling and implied team total, Ja'Marr Chase is really neck-and-neck. He's one of the top fantasy-points-per-dollar plays because he's a $9K talent priced at $7,700 in this spot, so honestly he's underpriced. We have seen the Bengals continue to throw the ball even in blowout game scripts, so I think Chase could definitely smash here.

Then Puka Nacua is just behind them in ownership, and I think this is solid chalk as well. We know what he can do in the McVay offense with Stafford at quarterback, especially when Davante Adams is out. The implied team total is high, and they're going to get a Chargers team that's been in disarray this year.

Wan'Dale Robinson is the fragile chalk

Now, when I look for fragile chalk: Carnell Tate is out, and Wan'Dale Robinson is expected to get a lot of ownership and fill that role. It's a little concerning, because Tennessee has been such a bad, low-scoring offense and now Wan'Dale Robinson is value chalk of the slate. We're talking about an offense that has only scored 15.4 points per game. Wan'Dale Robinson has games on DraftKings this season with four points, five points, one point and eight points. It's a good cash play, but are you jamming a guy like this into your tournament lineups? This rarely works.

I would rather play Ja'Kobi Lane. I would rather play Chris Godwin with Emeka Egbuka out. I would rather play Kendrick Bourne against Dallas. DeMario Douglas, I think, is a fantastic play with A.J. Brown out. These are guys that I would definitely be shifting some of my exposure to, as opposed to eating this Wan'Dale Robinson chalk.

Hunter Henry leads the tight end chalk

At tight end, Hunter Henry projects for the most ownership. To me this makes sense with all the injuries to the Patriots' receiving room: A.J. Brown out, Doubs on IR, Mack Hollins questionable. I think this is good chalk, and Hunter Henry is definitely the cash play here. He's got four games in a row of double-digit fantasy points, and he's getting anywhere from five to seven targets per game, so I think this is a pretty good spot for him.

A guy that I think is vastly under-owned, and who I definitely want to shift some exposure to in tournaments, is T.J. Hockenson. He's only projected for 4% ownership at $4,600, going against a Detroit team that is allowing almost 30 points per game to opposing tight ends. I just don't know why the field is sleeping on him, so I definitely want to get some T.J. Hockenson exposure in tournaments.

The pivots I want in tournaments

There are a couple of other guys I want exposure to in tournaments: both of the Wilsons, Michael Wilson and Garrett Wilson. They're both projected for low ownership, Michael Wilson at 7% and Garrett Wilson at 5%. Michael Wilson is in a game environment I want pieces of, and we've seen big games from him in the past. If you're game stacking this game and you've got Dak stacks and you want to bring it back, you could certainly do that with Michael Wilson.

There's also been a squeaky wheel narrative with Garrett Wilson. We saw him yelling on the sidelines, and he was obviously very upset about his recent usage as one of the top 10-15 wide receivers in the league. This is their top wide receiver, so Garrett Wilson at 5% projected ownership at $6,300 is a guy I want to take some shots on.

Derrick Henry and James Cook in that Baltimore and Buffalo game are two running backs that can literally finish as the top running back on the slate, and they're both projected for 10% or less ownership. If Lamar fails, it's probably because Derrick Henry has a big game. The same could be said for Zay Flowers failing. If Josh Allen fails, it's probably because James Cook is having a big game. So this is a game environment that I want pieces of, and because of that I want to take shots on guys who have high ceilings at low projected ownership in a game that could go crazy.

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Make sure to follow @PredFantasy on X so you never miss an article. FantasyFling will be dropping The Chalk Outline on Sunday morning, where he writes a full report of the chalk at every position after the dust settles - so you know which chalk to eat, which chalk to fade, and where we predict the field has got it wrong.