The Chalk Outline

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks are typically the most spread-out ownership, as it's rare to see a quarterback project for over 15% ownership unless the spot is extremely good and/or value hits - like when it did in 2025 when Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray.

This week, the most obvious spot is Dak Prescott at 12.3% projected ownership; I wrote about this yesterday on Chalk Dust. Dak is a great play on this slate against a Washington defense that he's carved up in the past. Combine that with the reality that Dallas doesn't have a very good defense either, and you get a high projected game total that can go back and forth and produce a lot of fantasy goodness. Dak is a great play in all formats, but in tournaments I would advise against Dak stacks that eat the RB chalk, as most builds will start that way.

After Dak, we get Purdy at 9% projected ownership, Daniels at 8%, Love at 7% and Herbert at 6%.

Purdy is in a great spot against Miami with a 29-point implied team total, but he may not have to do much. There is a high failure rate there with Miami unlikely to push the pace, so a lot of the touchdowns may go through CMC and potentially even Black. Purdy is a strong play with a fragile ceiling given the blowout potential. Love him for cash.

Jayden Daniels is my favorite way to play the Dallas game in tournaments - playing the other side. The 2024 Jayden Daniels is hard to beat in a shootout game environment because of his rushing upside. That's the Jayden Daniels version we're building for in our lineups. It will be a contrarian way to play the chalk game of the week.

Running Backs

Running back plays on this slate are obvious. It's Bijan at the top in a great spot against Carolina with a projected ownership of 34.6%. I wrote about Bijan yesterday in my Chalk Dust article. I think he's a top-tier player at RB in cash, but I do believe his ceiling is fragile with Cooper Rush under center. In cash we mainly want floor, but we also want guys who have ceiling too, as they help make up for duds at other positions on any given slate. I'm eating this chalk in cash for sure.

Next we have King Henry at home with a 27 implied team total and the Ravens really banged up at wide receiver. The obvious way to get out of this week with a win is to just feed King Henry. He's great chalk in all formats.

Christian McCaffrey is at 22% projected ownership. Kaelon Black is expected to play per Adam Schefter. I don't love that for CMC, as Black cut significantly into his workload last week. Was it because CMC was cramping, or because they want to limit CMC this year? I don't know, and I'm not getting to CMC this week in cash, but I love him in tournaments with a 29-point implied team total against a terrible Dolphins team.

The last two running backs getting 20% or more ownership are Javonte and Aaron Jones. Javonte has no competition for volume in what projects as a high-scoring offense this week against a poor Washington team. When looking back at past slates, I've found RB chalk to fail much less than WR chalk - mainly due to lesser touchdown variance - and for that reason I want to play Javonte more in this game than I want to guess on which Dallas wide receiver chalk won't deceive me. Cue that Elizabeth Holmes meme.

Aaron Jones was set for a nice RBBC with Jordan Mason until Mason was put on IR this week, and now we get Jones at $5,100 in a game with a 47.5 over/under that is shaping up to be rainy and windy. Jones almost has a 3x projection and 20% projected ownership. When RB value hits, I'm definitely looking to eat it in cash. You could question his upside, and his ownership is definitely fadeable in tournaments, but it's going to be hard for him not to get there in cash with him priced at $5,100 and Jones being a good receiver out of the backfield on DraftKings' full-PPR format.

Wide Receivers

Wide receiver chalk is always the trickiest, because wide receiver chalk fails at a very high rate: touchdown variance, elite corner play, double coverage, man vs zone schemes, you name it. When looking at wide receivers specifically for cash games, I tend to lean into game environments, volume and matchups, and prefer guys who have a consistent floor week in, week out. The JSNs, the Amon-Ras. Other than that, I want to play chalk that is a bit underpriced relative to how good they are - like Garrett Wilson. I'd rather play three really good $6K guys than one $8K+ player and look for value at the other two spots.

This week the top ownership is CeeDee Lamb at 21%, followed by Pickens at 18.5%. Lamb and Pickens are both great wide receivers; the problem here is they've both been up and down in scoring, so it's hard to rely on them from week to week. If Lamb was out, I'd be all in on Pickens and vice versa. They're good plays, but they're risky. I lean Pickens because of the cheaper price. A 12 from Pickens is probably fine for cash, but a 12 from $7,300 CeeDee Lamb is bad because of the opportunity cost of that extra $1,000.

Garrett Wilson at 16% is my favorite play in the top five, against a poor Packers defense. Geno looked competent last week, so I think he'll bring us a good floor and could smash at his price if this game shoots out - and I think it can, if the weather holds.

Ja'Marr Chase is projected for 16% ownership as well, and Jefferson is right behind him at 15%. Chase is arguably the most talented WR in the league, but he's had far too many games at 10 FPTS or less for his price, so he's normally a guy you want to play in tournaments as opposed to cash - unless Tee is out. Jefferson is overpriced for me based on the QB situation. I know everyone is in on Wentz after last week, but he's historically not been consistent, so the $7,800 price tag and ownership for Jefferson is tough to swallow. An avoid in cash, but a strong play in tournaments, as Wentz is projected for low ownership, so pairing the two should easily give you some contrarian builds.

Tight Ends

Tight end has historically been one of the highest positions of variance. How will you navigate this? If it's a position of high variance, it's logical to embrace the variance and fade the chalk, right? Yes, but at cost. Because of the variance, I prefer to play tight ends who are cheap, as opposed to playing a $5–6K tight end who catches two passes for 30 yards and gets you a 5. Instead, look for cheap tight ends who are going to see an elevated role due to injury, like Dalton Schultz or Michael Mayer, who are both under $4K in salary.

Schultz projects for the most ownership at 20%. I'm eating that chalk in cash games. Tournaments are another discussion, as I think it's sharp to look for direct leverage in that game off of Schultz chalk. For cash, I just want the easy points for a cheap price. I don't need him to score 20 points - at $3,200, if he gets 9 points, we're golden for cash.

Andrews is another tight end who projects for an elevated role with Flowers and Lane out, and he's projected for 18% ownership. Mayer is behind him at 13% ownership and is my second favorite play behind Schultz - he led the Raiders last week in targets with Bowers out and should do so again this week. Loveland comes in at 9% and McBride at 7%. Both are fantastic tournament plays, and probably the most talented tight ends on the entire slate, at low ownership.