The Chalk Outline

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks are typically the most spread-out ownership, as it's rare to see a quarterback project for over 15% ownership unless the spot is extremely good and/or value hits - like it did in 2025 when Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray.

Tyler Shough is projected for the most quarterback ownership on the slate at 10%. This isn't surprising to me for multiple reasons. When I run the Optimizer, he shows up the most in lineups, as he has the highest fantasy-points-per-dollar QB projection on the slate at 3.6. He's averaged 25.8 FPPG to start the season and is only $5,400. Under Kellen Moore, the Saints have been one of the more up-tempo offenses in the league, with 75 plays already this season through two games. This bodes well for Shough slinging the ball and producing fantasy scores.

He's the cash QB this week in my opinion, and when DFS Spreadsheets ran his sims on Saturday, you'll never guess who hit 4x their salary at the highest frequency. You guessed it: Tyler Shough. Because the game environment doesn't scream shootout with a 43.5-point total, none of the wide receivers are projected for over 15% ownership, so I'm not too worried about Shough stacks steaming up to ownership levels that I want to avoid in large-field tournaments. I don't think it will be difficult to get unique in Shough lineups, starting with a 5% projected ownership for Juwan Johnson.

After Shough, Mahomes, Goff and Allen project for the most ownership, but none of them are over 8%. Mahomes stacks would be direct leverage off of Walker, who's projected for almost 28% ownership. The Chiefs have a 27.5 implied team total, so while I question Miami being able to push the pace, it would be such an NFL DFS Sunday if Mahomes came out and threw 4 touchdowns while Walker ran for 90 yards and no touchdowns and failed to deliver tournament-winning value.

Jared Goff only projects for 7% ownership but is surrounded by chalk, with Gibbs projected for 32% ownership, Amon-Ra at 18%, and even LaPorta, who's popular at tight end with 11% ownership. I hinted at it yesterday, but my favorite way to play Goff stacks is to simply get comfortable putting an uncomfortable player in my lineup, like Jameson Williams.

Josh Allen at 7% projected ownership, with no chalk stacking pieces attached to him and a 50-point game total, feels like a cheat code. This is probably my favorite game of the slate, as the soap opera that is the NFL season is sure to have something in store for us after the Chargers dropped back-to-back easy games to start the season. Starting 0-3 in a division with the Broncos and Chiefs would be a death blow to the Chargers' AFC West hopes, and I think we'll get a heavyweight fight. I want pieces of this game, and Allen is always the best piece to play when the game is going off.

Running Backs

It's very rare that two running backs are far and away the best plays and not getting the most ownership, and this week is no different, as Gibbs and Walker both project for over 27% ownership. They're the best RB plays on the slate and it's not close. I wrote many words about them in Week 3's Chalk Dust article.

One guy I didn't write about yesterday, but who is definitely going in the flex in my cash lineup, is Jaylen Warren, who projects for 18% ownership. Dowdle is out and Warren is expected to play. He's always been in a timeshare, which caps his ceiling and definitely hurts his floor; he doesn't project to be in one this week, and Rodgers has loved to dump off to Warren. We have him with a 16-point fantasy projection, which is almost 3x his salary. I'm confident he'll do enough in cash at this salary to get you to the cash line. However, I'm not confident enough in the offensive environment around him for him to be an all-in play that can produce a tournament-winning score of over 4x his salary.

Side note: I actually love some of the running backs on this slate as leverage off of the chalk, and I wrote about them in my weekly Main Slate Cheatsheet for subscribers.

Wide Receivers

Wide receiver chalk is always the trickiest, because wide receiver chalk fails at a very high rate: touchdown variance, elite corner play, double coverage, man vs. zone schemes, you name it. When looking at wide receivers specifically for cash games, I tend to lean into game environments, volume and matchups, and prefer guys who have a consistent floor week in, week out: the JSNs, the Amon-Ras. Other than that, I want to play chalk that is a bit underpriced relative to how good they are or how they project on the slate. For example, players who are now likely to see a bump in targets due to injuries, where the price was set before the injury news came out.

Garrett Wilson, Parker Washington and Amon-Ra St. Brown all project for the most ownership at 18%.

Garrett Wilson is in a great spot against a bad secondary, and he should see a boost in targets with Adonai Mitchell either out or severely limited due to a hand injury. I can't see Mitchell coming in and getting 12 targets with mittens on, with Wilson on the same team. This is one of the higher totals on the slate, and I do expect the Jets to be trailing and throwing early and often in this one to Wilson. Love this chalk in cash. At this price, in this matchup, and with this volume, I like it for tournaments as well.

Parker Washington projects very similarly to Wilson, after a 12-target, 7-catch performance last week against Denver and 7 targets in Week 1. He's good, and his 18 FPPG at $6,000 is fantastic for cash. The matchup against New England is much tougher for Washington than the one Wilson is facing, so in tournaments, I'm more likely to shift Washington exposure to other wide receivers in his range than I am to load up on him.

I'm not getting to Amon-Ra in cash this week because it's really difficult to play Gibbs and Walker and fit in Amon-Ra without punting too many other spots in the lineup, but he's a fantastic play in all formats. He has 13+ targets in back-to-back weeks, he moves around the formation to avoid difficult coverage, and the Lions' secondary is one that will give up a lot of touchdowns and force the offense to respond. That bodes well for the entire offense, but especially their WR1 when they need to score 30+ points to win.

I'm still having a hard time believing it, but JSN isn't top 5 in WR ownership after starting the season with 37.4 FPPG, and he's facing the Commanders secondary.

Tight Ends

Tight end has historically been one of the positions with the highest variance. How will you navigate this? If it's a position of high variance, it's logical to embrace the variance and fade the chalk, right? Yes, but at a cost. Because of the variance, I prefer my cash-game tight end to be of good value, as opposed to playing a $5–6K tight end who will often end up with a stat line like two catches for 30 yards. That crushes your lineup from an opportunity-cost standpoint in the $5–6K range, and it's easier to stomach when you get that kind of output from a $3–4K tight end.

The best fantasy-points-per-dollar plays at tight end this week, according to the Optimizer, are Dalton Schultz and Sam LaPorta. Schultz got 14 targets last week with Nico out, and Nico is not playing this week either, so I'm going right back to him in my cash lineup at his $4,200 salary. He projects for the most ownership at 16%. Andrews has an almost identical ownership projection, but does project worse, and only got 7 targets last week with Flowers out. Flowers is still questionable, so although I think Andrews is a fine play if Flowers is out, I'm leaning Schultz, who I think is the better player at this point in his career and whose volume has been much better to start the season.

As I mentioned, the tight end position is full of variance, so I am typically looking to fade that in tournaments by being under the field and shifting exposure to tight ends who should have a lot more ownership than they're projecting for. Gadsden, Juwan, McBride, Kincaid and Kittle are some of those options where I like the game environment and upside at sub-10% projected ownership.

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