The Chalk Outline

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks are typically the most spread-out ownership, as it's rare to see a quarterback project for over 15% ownership unless the spot is extremely good and/or value hits - like it did in 2025 when Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray.

Trevor Lawrence is projected for the most quarterback ownership on the slate at 14%. We have him with the top fantasy-points-per-dollar projection at QB, and he's playing in the game with the highest Vegas total on the slate at 51.5 points. I see this game as one that could be back-and-forth scoring, and that bodes well for Lawrence to pay off his salary in cash. When we look at what the sims are saying, he appears in the simulated winning lineup with the most frequency, and hits 3-4x his salary at the highest rate. Lawrence is a great play in all formats. There's a lot of chalk in this game, so eating Lawrence chalk and stacking him with the chalk pieces will require some uniqueness elsewhere in tournaments - Jakobi Meyers is one way to get unique, at 5% projected ownership. After Lawrence, Allen, Burrow, and Murray are all projected for 8% ownership.

Josh Allen coughed up the ball multiple times last week in what would've been another smash spot for him. This is a get-right spot at home with a 28.25 implied team total. The Patriots will be without their starting DT and Christian Gonzalez. This is a big boost to Allen, and his stacking partners are projected for under 10% ownership.

The Burrow chalk is unsurprising, as the field wants to play both sides of this game, and the Bengals are the team with the 27-point implied team total. While Higgins and Chase are both projected for 15%+ ownership, stacking the two together will be more contrarian than single stacks, and it will likely force you into more contrarian builds as opposed to eating the CMC chalk at the top.

Running Backs

This week isn't as clear-cut at the RB position as it was last week, with Gibbs and Walker as the clear top options. This week it's Christian McCaffrey, who I wrote about in yesterday's Chalk Dust article:

Denver gave up 37.1 FPTS to Kenneth Walker in Week 1, 14.2 FPTS to Tuten in Week 2, and 26.9 combined FPTS to a Kyren/Corum combo in Week 3. Given how banged up the 49ers receiving room is, I expect them to feature CMC against a team allowing over 26 FPPG to opposing running backs. CMC also has the top RB projection on the slate despite being $500 cheaper than Walker, who has the second-highest projection. At 30% projected ownership, he's a lock for your cash lineups. Similar to last week with Gibbs, I imagine when we flip the cards over on Sunday morning after lock, CMC will be 70% owned in cash games (50/50s, double ups, etc.).

He also has the 5th-highest probability of hitting 4x his salary, according to Spreadsheets' Sims. That makes him a strong play in all formats. I imagine he'll see 20+ opportunities with 5-8 targets included.

After CMC, there's chalk at the top that I could poke holes in, as I did in Week 4's Chalk Dust. I'm comfortable eating the Jones, Brown, and Love chalk in cash, as they all project for 20%+ ownership. I like 3-RB builds with Love, one of Brown or Jones, plus CMC, who's the cash lock. In tournaments, some of the pivots I like off of this chalk are Tuten, Cook, and Kyren.

Wide Receivers

Wide receiver chalk is always the trickiest, because wide receiver chalk fails at a very high rate: touchdown variance, elite corner play, double coverage, man vs. zone schemes, you name it. When looking at wide receivers specifically for cash games, I tend to lean into game environments, volume and matchups, and prefer guys who have a consistent floor week in, week out: the JSNs, the Amon-Ras. Other than that, I want to play chalk that is a bit underpriced relative to how good they are or how they project on the slate. For example, players who are now likely to see a bump in targets due to injuries, where the price was set before the injury news came out.

Jordan Addison stands at the top with almost a 25% ownership projection. One piece of news explains this ownership projection: Justin Jefferson is out. Addison smashed last week with 5 catches on 9 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. There are always paths to a Kyler Murray-led offense failing, but I'm confident he'll pay off his salary in cash. Great cash play. Great value play across the board. That being said, playing a 25% owned wide receiver in what projects as a non-competitive game is a recipe for lighting your money on fire most slates. He seems highly likely to hit 3x his salary, but isn't projecting quite as well to hit 4x his salary in Spreadsheets' Sims. 4x is the general rule of thumb for a player to return tournament-winning value.

After Addison, Washington and Wilson are getting top ownership again in back-to-back weeks. I wrote my thoughts on them here:

The Parker Washington hype train is full steam ahead. Washington projects as the wide receiver with the most ownership, at 21%. He could go nuclear here in a game environment that projects as back and forth, with the highest game total on the slate at 51.5 points. He has also shown in back-to-back matchups that he still has a decent floor, mainly because he's a really good player who plays a lot of snaps in the slot, where he can avoid difficult corner matchups. At this ownership, I'm definitely team play-the-best-plays in cash, and I'm not so much looking to fade this in tournaments as I am getting exposure to other plays in this game, like Jakobi Meyers.

Garrett Wilson smashed last week with 13 targets, a bump of 6 targets from his Week 1 and 2 average of 6, with Adonai and Taylor out of the lineup. It's another soft matchup this week against the bad news Bears secondary. Given the volume, projection, and matchup, this is chalk that I want to be eating on Sunday.

Much like Washington, I'll have a good amount of Wilson in my lineups on Sunday. I'll be looking to hedge a bit against those builds with exposure to players like Meyers, Tuten, and Sadiq in those games, as they're players I think are good and aren't getting enough ownership relative to their upside.

Speaking of my thoughts in yesterday's article, Puka Nacua is now expected to be a full go and "not limited on a snap count," per Adam Schefter. He's projecting for less ownership based on yesterday's report that he may be on a snap count. His 14% ownership projection seems low given his salary and upside. I'm guessing he'll now get steamed up and be over 15%, but I'm comfortable with it because he's really an $8K+ player who could finish as the WR1 on the slate, and he's underpriced, all things considered.

Tight Ends

Tight end has historically been one of the positions with the highest variance. How will you navigate this? If it's a position of high variance, it's logical to embrace the variance and fade the chalk, right? Yes, but at a cost. Because of the variance, I prefer my cash-game tight end to be of good value, as opposed to playing a $5–6K tight end who will often end up with a stat line like two catches for 30 yards. That crushes your lineup from an opportunity-cost standpoint in the $5–6K range, and it's easier to stomach when you get that kind of output from a $3–4K tight end.

T.J. Hockenson stands alone at the top as the only tight end with a fantasy-points-per-dollar projection of over 3x his salary. This is another value due to the Justin Jefferson injury, plus a matchup against a terrible Dolphins team. The 21% projected ownership makes sense when we factor in the projected boost in volume, and thus the mispricing of the $3,300 Hockenson. In tournaments, I love Strange and Sadiq as pivots - they're getting way less ownership and are in great spots to shine.

Josh Norris from Yahoo Fantasy tweeted that "The TE17 is averaging more points per game (9.1) than the WR33 (8.8) and RB25 (8.5) this season." There has never been a better time to play a tight end in the flex in tournaments, and there's a handful of guys I want to force into my tournament builds in the flex who could smash on this slate - Kincaid, Bowers, Kittle, and McBride specifically.

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