The Chalk Outline

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett is the chalk of the slate at quarterback, with almost 22% ownership. He's clearly the cash quarterback, both from a fantasy-points-per-dollar standpoint and by ownership; he stands out above everyone else. If you don't start your cash lineup with Brissett, you're doing it wrong this week.

In tournaments, there's always merit to fading a chalk stack, and that's what the Brissett stacks with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride are. Studying the past five years of Milly Maker winners, we saw that home underdogs hit at an incredibly low rate. So Brissett is definitely a guy I'm playing in cash, but I'll be fading Brissett to Wilson and McBride stacks in tournaments, because most of the field is going to start their stacks exactly like that.

Behind him is Jared Goff at 15% projected ownership. That's not dramatically less than Brissett, but it's much easier to stack Goff and get different, with guys like Jameson Williams (projected for under 10% ownership) and Sam LaPorta (14%). Compare that to McBride at 33% and Wilson at over 35%. Stacking Goff makes it much easier to differentiate your lineup in tournaments, so I like playing the other side of this game.

After Brissett and Goff come Tyson Bagent at almost 8% ownership and Drake Maye at almost 6%. Both have team totals of 24 points or more and solid projections. If you're looking to get different, starting with a Bagent or Maye stack is definitely a way to do it.

Running Backs

Once again, I wrote about Jahmyr Gibbs being the chalk of the slate in yesterday's Chalk Dust article:

When we look at the landscape of the slate, it's really not surprising that Gibbs is projected for so much ownership, even at $9,800. It's a smaller slate at 11 games, and some of the best offenses, like Buffalo, aren't on it. Most of the time, a player needs 3.5-4x his salary to be in the winning lineup, and that's a big ask for a $9,800 player who needs about 39 points to hit 4x. But I think points are going to be at a premium on this slate, and 30 points from Gibbs would probably do it.

He's now projected for 37% ownership, with by far the highest fantasy projection on the slate at 27 points and the highest price tag at $9,800. He's definitely in your cash lineup. This slate lacks some of the firepower we typically see on a main slate: Buffalo, Baltimore, and the Rams aren't on it. That makes Gibbs hard to fade.

After Gibbs, it's D'Andre Swift, who's getting the most ownership at the position behind him with Kyle Monangai out and a high game total. It makes a ton of sense, and I love Swift on this slate as well. This is chalk I'm eating in my cash lineups at almost 36% projected ownership, very close to Gibbs.

After that, it gets tricky. Mike Washington Jr. is an absolute slam dunk if Ashton Jeanty misses the game. Jeanty is questionable, reportedly dealing with an ankle sprain and plantar fasciitis. If Jeanty can't go, Washington at $4,200 would be a smash and an easy cash play for me this week. We've seen in the past that when extreme value hits a slate at running back, more times than not, it's better to eat that chalk and get different elsewhere.

Wide Receivers

Michael Wilson is projected for the highest ownership at wide receiver, and I think it's great in that game environment with Marvin Harrison Jr. out. I wrote about this in Chalk Dust:

This was already a good spot for Wilson and the Arizona passing offense: Detroit gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, including 46.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Add a few more targets on top of a workload that has already been consistent (13 targets last week, 17 the week before), and the elevated ownership is easy to understand.

So this chalk makes sense, in cash and in tournaments. That said, I'm very rarely going to embrace the idea of playing a wide receiver projected for over 35% ownership. I'm comfortable being under the field on Wilson and spreading exposure to other wide receivers in that offense, like Kendrick Bourne, and to pivots elsewhere on the slate like I suggested in yesterday's Chalk Dust write up.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is in that same game. He's had a couple of down games by his standards, and I think this is a great spot for him to bounce back. It can't be stressed enough that Detroit has a 30-point implied team total, and Arizona, much like Detroit, is giving up a lot of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, about 40 per game. This Amon-Ra chalk is chalk I think is good, and I'll be open to eating it in cash games and in all formats.

After that, it's Tre' Harris, getting a lot of ownership at 25% because Ladd McConkey is projected to be out. Typically, I'd avoid wide receivers against the Broncos, but with Quentin Johnston and McConkey both out, I think the Tre' Harris chalk at $4,100 is good against a Broncos team that is also down two corners.

Tight Ends

I typically don't like to pay up at tight end in cash, but Trey McBride is in such a good spot. It's very similar to Michael Wilson's, because Detroit gives up 29 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Call me crazy, but I trust McBride a little more than Wilson. He's one of the two best tight ends in the league, and he's in a smash spot. He's projected for 33% ownership. Normally, this isn't something I'd play in cash (high-priced TE), but this week I think it's viable, and optimal, to play McBride in your cash lineup.

After him, Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers have the next-most ownership. LaPorta makes sense against an Arizona team that is bad against opposing tight ends as well. Both Detroit and Arizona are poor against wide receivers and tight ends, and that bodes well for all the pass catchers in this game. I like LaPorta here, definitely as a tournament pivot, but not so much as a cash play. Same thing with Bowers: I love the game and think it's a great spot for him to nuke on this slate with Christian Gonzalez out, but he's more of a tournament pivot for me.

Defense

I typically don't cover defenses in this article, but the one I'm on in cash this week is the Titans at near-minimum pricing. They match up very well against Houston's offensive line, and I think they could create sacks and turnovers. At $2,100, this is a spot I'm trying to get to so I can force as many Detroit and Arizona players into my cash lineup as possible. The game total has come down to 37.5, so I think Vegas sees the same thing. The Titans are tremendous value at defense.

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