The Chalk Outline

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford is the chalk of the slate at quarterback. He's really been the chalk of the slate all week, and it's no surprise that he continues to be, with such a high implied team total and Puka Nacua back in the fold with Davante Adams, against an Arizona team that has been a target for opposing offenses. They give up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Stafford is the top fantasy-points-per-dollar play. So his 17.4% projected ownership is chalk I'm eating in cash. I just think there's much less likelihood that he fails at $6,400 with these weapons, in this matchup, than a $7,500 QB, for example.

Josh Allen is the next highest-owned quarterback at 13% ownership. He's definitely a quarterback I want a lot of in small-field tournaments, and really, he's viable in all formats, definitely large-field tournaments with such a high ceiling. He has the highest projection on the slate and is in a game that could go back and forth. The issue with Buffalo this year is that their defense has been bad, so they get shootouts: they allow the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the third-most to opposing quarterbacks. If Las Vegas is able to keep this game to a competitive one, Josh Allen could certainly be the top-scoring quarterback on the slate. It's great chalk.

Caleb Williams is coming in as the next highest-owned quarterback. This isn't super surprising: when we did our first look early in the week, the game total was already high, which suggested Caleb would be back. It's the second-highest game total on the slate at 52.5, so I really love this spot for Caleb. Stacking him has been tricky, but I think in this spot it's good chalk. Coming back from a hamstring injury, I think he's less likely to run, and that's where a lot of his fantasy points came from early in the season. If he's standing in the pocket and throwing more, that should be better for Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland.

Drake Maye is still low-owned, and I love that in tournaments. He's at a 5.2% ownership projection, with A.J. Brown coming back as a stacking partner this week.

Running Backs

There's been a good amount of shifting ownership at running back. Kyren Williams is still the top dog, and this makes a lot of sense in cash. I think he's the definite cash play. There is some talk around the industry that the Rams' games so far have been so competitive that they've leaned on Kyren the entire game, but if this one gets out of hand, as it can with the Rams such massive 12.5-point favorites, they will lean on Blake Corum more. So, I agree with that narrative, and I think that widens the range of outcomes for Kyren. He could nuke the slate with 30 fantasy points, or we could see more of a split if they get up early. He's still chalk, but picture Puka getting a touchdown, Davante Adams getting a touchdown, Kyren getting a touchdown, and the Rams up 21-3. If it's a heavy dose of Blake Corum after a big lead, that's bad for Kyren's tournament-winning upside. Kyren could produce over 20 fantasy points and still not hit the 4x salary you'd need to win the tournament. So I love him in cash and small-field tournaments, but I don't think he's as much of a lock as he was yesterday, when I talked about him in Chalk Dust.

Bijan Robinson is another running back I talked about in Chalk Dust. He has the top running back projection on the slate, and he's definitely a guy I need in my cash lineup.

I also talked about Braelon Allen yesterday in Chalk Dust. This is chalk that historically we've seen you don't want to eat. You could definitely play him in cash, but I don't think you need to. He's $5,700 with a pretty good projection for sure, but this could easily be a game where the Jets are trailing and throwing, and he gets a negative game script against a New England team that has been good against the run, allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. So this is fragile chalk to me. Speaking of fragile chalk, I mentioned that Stevenson would be fragile if Henderson were to play... well, Henderson is expected to play and Stevenson's ownership fell. He's out of cash consideration for me.

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua has to be in your cash lineup. He's mega chalk, and the chalk is too good. We've seen him on the field smashing in blowout game scripts in the past. Sure, the Rams could get up big and sit him, since he did have the groin injury that made him miss some games, but he's definitely a smash in cash: any time you have a 40%-owned wide receiver getting this type of volume, in this type of elite matchup, with this type of projection, you just need to eat that chalk. There's always merit to fading in tournaments, but as I talked about yesterday in Chalk Dust, this is such a good spot for him.

Drake London is all the way up to 31% ownership. I think you've got to get to him in cash at this ownership in this spot. When I was building earlier, it really wasn't difficult to get to Drake London. His game has been great with Michael Penix, and Chicago is a team you can definitely beat up a bit in the secondary, as we saw earlier this year when Bryce Young lit them up.

Xavier Worthy is also getting a lot of ownership. As far as value goes, it really depends on your roster construction. If you have the $4,600, he's the best, I think, just from a projection standpoint. But Germie Bernard is projecting well, is $600 less, and is a guy I'm definitely finding my way to in my cash lineup.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely is the chalk of the slate at tight end at $4,800. He's been really good, he's going to come up in optimals, and he's definitely cash viable. My strategy for playing cash over the years has always been to look to pay down at tight end, because these $4K-plus tight ends fail at a high rate, and in cash I'm looking for the least amount of variance possible in my lineup. Dallas Goedert is another guy coming in with a good amount of ownership, and he's $900 less. You could certainly play him. Tyler Higbee is only $3,400, and I really like him as well. But Isaiah Likely is at the top, getting the most ownership, and he's definitely cash viable.

Brock Bowers is getting the 2nd-most ownership at tight end on the slate. I typically am not going to play a $7,500 tight end in cash, but in tournaments, Bowers is a clear standout in a game that could go nuclear. He has by far the best tight end projection on the slate.

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