The Chalk Outline: Week 8

Every Sunday of the NFL season, I'll be writing a report on the current chalk of the main slate after the injury news of who's playing and who isn't becomes clearer. This article is meant to outline the chalk of the slate and give a guide as to some of the chalk that may be good to eat, and some of the chalk that we may want to avoid.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott is still the chalk of the slate at quarterback. He is projected for the most ownership, and this is really no surprise, as I wrote about it yesterday on Chalk Dust:

Dak Prescott is the quarterback chalk of the slate with almost 16% projected ownership. This is really not a surprise given a combination of factors for Dak. Dallas has an elite combination of an offense that scores a lot of points and a defense that gives up a lot of points. They're currently averaging 27 points per game, and they're giving up about 25 points per game. This game total is tied for the highest on the slate at 54.5. The Dallas Cowboys have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.75, and Dak is only $6,300, so he does not have to do much to pay off his salary. He shows up really well in the sims to hit 3x and 4x, actually at the highest rate of any quarterback. So this is a great spot for Dak, as I expect the Cowboys to score early and often.

After Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow is getting the most ownership. Now, you would expect that you wouldn't get a big game from Joe Burrow with the Bengals as such heavy favorites (12.5 points), but we've seen in the past that when these teams have a high implied team total, it often means they can just score a lot of points early on in the game before the game gets out of hand, especially because they haven't really had a good running game that they can lean on this year. For example, they played against Miami in Week 5 and Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns in that game. What I like about the Joe Burrow play is that if he's having a big game, there's a great chance that the Chase Brown chalk is failing, and to me, the Chase Brown chalk feels fragile.

Right behind Joe Burrow, we have Josh Allen projected for 10% ownership. This is quite low to me and super surprising given the game environment. I think maybe part of the reason is the field just questions how to stack Josh Allen. But fortunately, we got news this morning that DJ Moore is expected to play, and he's only projected for 8% ownership. Josh Allen stacks with DJ Moore are certainly in play. Same with Dalton Kincaid, who's projected for only 2% ownership. And then, of course, you can run Josh Allen naked as well.

Running Backs

At running back, I wrote about Rhamondre Stevenson yesterday in Chalk Dust:

After Chase Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson is projected for a lot of ownership, currently about 20%. There are several reasons why this spot stands out to me. He's only $5,600. The Patriots are really banged up at wide receiver, and TreVeyon Henderson is out for this game. So I would expect a Stevenson-heavy game script between carries and receiving targets. I really like him in cash at this ownership, and honestly I think he's a solid play in all formats in this spot, with a high team total against a poor Miami team that is specifically bad against the run, allowing 29.4 fantasy points per game.

Not a whole lot has really changed. Chase Brown and Bhayshul Tuten are still projected for the highest ownership alongside Stevenson. We have bumped Braelon Allen all the way up to 18% ownership because news came down today that he's expected to start. With that, I wouldn't expect Breece Hall to play today. I do think Breece Hall is a potential trade candidate, so I could definitely see the Jets being cautious with this Breece Hall situation, and I expect Braelon Allen to get the full workload.

It's a good spot against a Raiders team that gives up 26.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and the Jets are favored at home with a 24 implied team total. This is a game environment that is actually underrated and could go back and forth. So, I really like Braelon Allen here. I like him in cash, I like him really in all formats, and this is chalk that I am definitely looking to eat. Another thing that I love about Braelon Allen is that I think he's a solid pivot off of Brown. It's not a big ownership discount from what we're projecting for Chase Brown, but he's just a solid one-on-one pivot, as I really don't love the Chase Brown chalk right now.

One guy that I really did not talk about yesterday in my Chalk Dust article is Bucky Irving. He's projected for about 16% ownership, and he's also a really nice pivot off of Chase Brown. Baker Mayfield just has not looked right, they're without Egbuka, and Atlanta has really been a team to target against the run, as they are allowing 26.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Also, these games have really been shootouts in the past: three of the last four meetings have gone for over 50 points. So I think Bucky Irving is a great value at modest ownership.

Wide Receivers

At wide receiver, Zay Flowers is getting the most ownership, which is no surprise. I wrote about him on Chalk Dust yesterday:

Speaking of wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase and Zay Flowers are projected for almost identical ownership. I love them both this week, but I specifically love Zay Flowers. The reason is he does not have a Tee Higgins on the opposite side of him who can have those smash games and bury him, like Tee Higgins would to Ja'Marr Chase. He's also in an incredible game environment where I think they're going to need a lot of offense to beat Buffalo, and they're going against the worst secondary this year as far as giving up fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Buffalo Bills are giving up 43 points per game to opposing wide receivers. When Zay Flowers has been on the field with Lamar Jackson this year, it has been absolutely electric. He's actually still averaging about 22 points per game, and most of that has been with Huntley, but we've seen him score 25 points in one half of football with Lamar Jackson. He's a guy that I've prioritized above everyone else.

I do think when we look at overall projection, ceiling and implied team total, Ja'Marr Chase is really neck-and-neck. He's one of the top fantasy-points-per-dollar plays because he's a $9K talent priced at $7,700 in this spot, so honestly he's underpriced. We have seen the Bengals continue to throw the ball even in blowout game scripts, so I think Chase could definitely smash here.

Nothing has really moved a whole lot in the wide receiver ownership since yesterday. One guy that's up a little bit is Elic Ayomanor at 11% ownership, as probably the top wide receiver value on the slate. I actually like him a little bit more than Wan'Dale Robinson, just because he's a $1,200 discount. If he fails, it's definitely going to hurt you less, and it allows you to get into some builds where you're getting a better second wide receiver because you went with the $3K Elic. This is a guy that got seven targets last week.

I do prefer Ja'Kobi Lane, just as an overall talent in a better offensive environment, and I wrote about him yesterday on Chalk Dust as well:

I would rather play Ja'Kobi Lane. I would rather play Chris Godwin with Emeka Egbuka out. I would rather play Kendrick Bourne against Dallas. DeMario Douglas, I think, is a fantastic play with A.J. Brown out. These are guys that I would definitely be shifting some of my exposure to, as opposed to eating this Wan'Dale Robinson chalk.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry is the cash tight end this week. He's got four straight games with double-digit scores, and he's going against a Miami team that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. In addition to that, the Patriots are really banged up at wide receiver. So I think this is a great spot for Hunter Henry, who's already been producing and should get more opportunities in a plus matchup.

Defense

I don't always push one defense over the others, but one that really stands out to me is Denver at home in a divisional matchup, getting 16% ownership. I'm always about paying down, especially in cash games, and the Denver defense is now at full strength. They got Jonathon Cooper back off the exempt list, and they have Patrick Surtain slated to start again in this one. So I think this is just too good a value at only $2,300, and it's definitely your cash defense.

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